Shallybrook to Valkur's Roar - Should it Be This Dangerous?

[ihmajin]

Happy Valentines, FRC!

I wanted to share my very recent experience as a level eight character traveling from Shallybrook to Valkur's Roar and discuss issues of balance. Fair warning, I won't be too terribly specific on location but their may be spoilers below so please read at your own risk!

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My journey begins in Shallybrook where I set out with the intention to walk Valkur's Roar and then Greatgaunt. It's a trip that I've done alone in the past that challenges me without me needing to expend the majority of my resources... so long as I'm careful.

I ventured forth to gather some coin from a nearby container and spawned a trio of ogres. I engaged an ogre in single combat and was a bit surprised at its higher than usual attack bonus as well as the experience points rewarded.

[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Sun Feb 14 14:30:31] Ogre attacks Bregrorn Mustoldo : *miss* : (3 + 12 = 15)
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Sun Feb 14 14:30:32] Bregrorn Mustoldo: *Dances around the clumsy yet powerful strikes.*
[ihmajin] Bregrorn Mustoldo: [Talk] *Dances around the clumsy yet powerful strikes.*
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Sun Feb 14 14:30:33] Expertise : Bregrorn Mustoldo attacks Ogre : *hit* : (18 + 7 = 25)
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Sun Feb 14 14:30:34] Bregrorn Mustoldo damages Ogre: 6 (5 Physical 1 Fire)
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Sun Feb 14 14:30:34] Ogre attacks Bregrorn Mustoldo : *miss* : (4 + 7 = 11)
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Sun Feb 14 14:30:36] Expertise : Bregrorn Mustoldo attacks Ogre : *miss* : (1 + 2 = 3)
...
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Sun Feb 14 14:31:08] Expertise : Bregrorn Mustoldo attacks Ogre : *hit* : (13 + 7 = 20)
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Sun Feb 14 14:31:09] Bregrorn Mustoldo damages Ogre: 9 (8 Physical 1 Fire)
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Sun Feb 14 14:31:09] Experience Points Gained:  17
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Sun Feb 14 14:31:09] Bregrorn Mustoldo killed Ogre
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Sun Feb 14 14:31:11] Bregrorn Mustoldo: *The ogre falls a bloody mess of cut tendons.*
[ihmajin] Bregrorn Mustoldo: [Talk] *The ogre falls a bloody mess of cut tendons.*


Ah, so this is my first time attempting this journey at level eight. Perhaps the enemies spawn a bit more tough so as to always keep me on my toes. Ogres are big and strong. It seems fair enough. I opted continue on my way instead of picking more fights with ogres. Soon I spawned an aggressive worg and I defended myself.

[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Sun Feb 14 14:37:59] Worg attacks Bregrorn Mustoldo : *hit* : (16 + 14 = 30)
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Sun Feb 14 14:37:59] Worg damages Bregrorn Mustoldo: 9 (9 Physical)
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Sun Feb 14 14:38:00] Expertise : Bregrorn Mustoldo attacks Worg : *hit* : (18 + 7 = 25)
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Sun Feb 14 14:38:01] Bregrorn Mustoldo damages Worg: 9 (8 Physical 1 Fire)
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Sun Feb 14 14:38:02] Worg attacks Bregrorn Mustoldo : *miss* : (7 + 9 = 16)
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Sun Feb 14 14:38:03] Worg attacks Bregrorn Mustoldo : *miss* : (14 + 4 = 18)
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Sun Feb 14 14:38:04] Expertise : Bregrorn Mustoldo attacks Worg : *hit* : (20 + 2 = 22 : Threat Roll: 11 + 2 = 13)
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Sun Feb 14 14:38:05] Bregrorn Mustoldo damages Worg: 11 (10 Physical 1 Fire)
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Sun Feb 14 14:38:06] Worg attacks Bregrorn Mustoldo : *critical hit* : (20 + 14 = 34 : Threat Roll: 16 + 14 = 30)
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Sun Feb 14 14:38:06] Worg damages Bregrorn Mustoldo: 18 (18 Physical)
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Sun Feb 14 14:38:07] Expertise : Bregrorn Mustoldo attacks Worg : *critical hit* : (19 + 7 = 26 : Threat Roll: 11 + 7 = 18)
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Sun Feb 14 14:38:08] Bregrorn Mustoldo damages Worg: 18 (16 Physical 2 Fire)
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Sun Feb 14 14:38:08] Experience Points Gained:  38
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Sun Feb 14 14:38:08] Bregrorn Mustoldo killed Worg

Heavens above that was a close call! This worg was much more challenging than the ogre! It also had a third attack with an attack bonus two higher than the ogre! I decided it's not worth battling another worg so I went on my way. Signs of activity led me to small wooded alcove where I spawned a collection of bandits. I tricked one highwayman into a fight.

[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Sun Feb 14 14:41:32] Bandit attacks Bregrorn Mustoldo : *miss* : (1 + 17 = 18)
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Sun Feb 14 14:41:34] Bandit attacks Bregrorn Mustoldo : *miss* : (12 + 12 = 24)
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Sun Feb 14 14:41:35] Bregrorn Mustoldo attacks Bandit : *critical hit* : (20 + 13 = 33 : Threat Roll: 9 + 13 = 22)
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Sun Feb 14 14:41:35] Bregrorn Mustoldo damages Bandit: 20 (18 Physical 2 Fire)
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Sun Feb 14 14:41:36] Bandit attacks Bregrorn Mustoldo : *miss* : (13 + 7 = 20)
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Sun Feb 14 14:41:38] Bregrorn Mustoldo attacks Bandit : *hit* : (16 + 8 = 24)
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Sun Feb 14 14:41:38] Bregrorn Mustoldo damages Bandit: 12 (11 Physical 1 Fire)
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Sun Feb 14 14:41:38] Experience Points Gained:  38
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Sun Feb 14 14:41:38] Bregrorn Mustoldo killed Bandit

This bandit was scary! I actually had to, ahem, social distance, down a few potions to buff myself, then reengage, and yet I was still almost killed! Three attacks with the highest attack bonus of 17 against a single level eight character! Yikes!

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Anyway, I just wanted to bring this experience to light and figure out if the enemies are actually supposed to spawn that dangerous along the roads between Shallybrook and Valkur's Roar. If it is intention by design then I shall respect it although I will like to make a point that it limits how much of the server I can safely explore. For clarification, I've wound my way throughout the Bramblewood at lower levels and often had to retreat and come back later either at a higher level or in greater numbers. This is the first instance where I'm revisiting an area that I thought I had mastered but becoming absolutely overwhelmed by the newfound challenge.

Thanks for reading!

~ihmajin~

[ID10Tango]

Maybe this would be better suited in the DM Q&A or something, but if you're asking if your experience at lvl 8 against those creatures in those areas is balanced my opinion would be yes. There's a whole tangent that can be researched about lvls and spawns and such.

Lvl 8 is fairly early in terms of skills and gear progression and all that jazz, and one of the areas you're referring to leads to a place where I died at lvl 13.

[Ruin]

There is actually a message somewhere and I can't recall. But most people know generally that adventurers stick around Greatgaunt and the outskirts area till around level 10 before they start exploring new lands and territories.

Also, this is not to discourage solo play, but many areas in FRC are built more for group play. I've watched epic soloists march through some places and then also spend 3+ hours in a place that would take 1.5 hours with a group. I've seen newbie soloists go through the goblin warrens at level 10-13 and spend double the time there a group would.

Sometimes one can't find a group and they just wanna go about on their own for awhile see how they handle things. That's fine, but as many know solo players are going to spend waay more time trying to gather loot/kill monsters than they would with a group. It's all give and take.

When you find yourself exploring by yourself around lower levels outside of Greatgaunt areas (Beyond the outskirts of GG that is), you may have a tough time, usually will if you are below 10.

Some places are mixed a bit and you might find something a bit harder or easier than you just fought, but usually it's not by a large amount. :3

Can you solo places beyond Greatgaunt? By ALL means.

Will you be getting smacked around and use more healing? Probably more than usual.

Lastly mobs and their natural roll of 20 is more often than one may think. You fight 4 or 5 creatures with 2+ attacks/round? one or two of em is going to smack yah with a natural 20 in the next 2-3 rounds.

[malclave]

I ventured forth to gather some coin from a nearby container and spawned a trio of ogres.

The roads of Cormyr are usually safe... it's going off the road that can get you into trouble... especially if you're by yourself (as I've found out more than once).

[DM Maleficent's Kiss]

Phase spiders... *rocks back and forth on the floor*

[sightblinder]

Yeah but I'm pretty sure the spawns have been kind of whack in some areas since the update. :/

[Deleted]

In general, getting 13-17 XP for one stronger than usual foe means you are in the golden spot of challenge rating and risk Vs reward ratio. Of course that system takes not into account the strength of the magic gear, build and skill at the game of the player.

I agree that the 38 XP foes seem unusually strong. Maybe someone higher in level was passing through the area or something indeed broke. Likely the first option.

[sightblinder]

I was stealthing through the area right outside of Shally with my level 8 character and watched two hill giant berserkers spawn when I crossed the trigger. Don't think an 8th level is supposed to spawn one of those, let alone two.

[DM Hawk]

Feb 14, 2021 20:35:59 GMT -5 sightblinder said:

I was stealthing through the area right outside of Shally with my level 8 character and watched two hill giant berserkers spawn when I crossed the trigger. Don't think an 8th level is supposed to spawn one of those, let alone two.

A higher level character or party in the area at the same time may have triggered this. If there's a repeat occurrence in that area, you can PM me with the details, date, time etc.

[DOT]

Curious that you mentioned that. I encountered this near the ettin caves maybe between 10pm-11pm today. Near the entry (inside the cave) there were ettins that were definitly a lot higher than what we should ahve encountered (lv 5 pcs, ettins hit damn hard, got em, gave 38 xp).

[malclave]

Feb 15, 2021 3:27:06 GMT -5 DOT said:

Curious that you mentioned that. I encountered this near the ettin caves maybe between 10pm-11pm today. Near the entry (inside the cave) there were ettins that were definitly a lot higher than what we should ahve encountered (lv 5 pcs, ettins hit damn hard, got em, gave 38 xp).

I know DM Hawk was looking at those ettins a couple of months ago (in response to frc.proboards.com/thread/33495/ettin-glitch ).

[DM Hawk]

The Ettin encounters were adjusted and the issue seems to have subsided.

Keep in mind that the lowliest Ettin has a greater CR than a level 5 character...so the result reported above would be expected. Ettins are a bit ambitious for level 5 characters, who can still access dungeons around the starting town.

[Deleted]

From my experience, Human bandits and Ettins also are one of the more aggressively-scaling mobs on the server. A level 20 fighter can be in danger if they are careless with either group.

[ihmajin]

Hello everyone, I downed a few potions and went to reengage the same batch of enemies that I encountered yesterday. I totally wasn't nervous or anything!

The ogre was much more tame with one attack at a +10 attack bonus.

[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Mon Feb 15 16:57:07] Ogre attacks Bregrorn Mustoldo : *miss* : (4 + 10 = 14)
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Mon Feb 15 16:57:10] Expertise : Bregrorn Mustoldo attacks Ogre : *hit* : (11 + 8 = 19)
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Mon Feb 15 16:57:10] Bregrorn Mustoldo damages Ogre: 10 (9 Physical 1 Fire)
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Mon Feb 15 16:57:12] Ogre attacks Bregrorn Mustoldo : *miss* : (16 + 10 = 26)
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Mon Feb 15 16:57:13] Expertise : Bregrorn Mustoldo attacks Ogre : *hit* : (20 + 3 = 23 : Threat Roll: 1 + 3 = 4)
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Mon Feb 15 16:57:14] Bregrorn Mustoldo damages Ogre: 7 (6 Physical 1 Fire)
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Mon Feb 15 16:57:16] Expertise : Bregrorn Mustoldo attacks Ogre : *hit* : (18 + 8 = 26)
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Mon Feb 15 16:57:17] Bregrorn Mustoldo damages Ogre: 12 (11 Physical 1 Fire)
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Mon Feb 15 16:57:17] Experience Points Gained:  10
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Mon Feb 15 16:57:17] Bregrorn Mustoldo killed Ogre

As for the worg, it thankfully changed to one attack with a +7 attack bonus.

[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Mon Feb 15 17:04:27] Worg attacks Bregrorn Mustoldo : *miss* : (6 + 7 = 13)
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Mon Feb 15 17:04:30] Expertise : Bregrorn Mustoldo attacks Worg : *miss* : (1 + 8 = 9)
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Mon Feb 15 17:04:32] Expertise : Bregrorn Mustoldo attacks Worg : *miss* : (4 + 3 = 7)
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Mon Feb 15 17:04:33] Worg attacks Bregrorn Mustoldo : *miss* : (15 + 7 = 22)
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Mon Feb 15 17:04:36] Expertise : Bregrorn Mustoldo attacks Worg : *hit* : (7 + 8 = 15)
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Mon Feb 15 17:04:37] Bregrorn Mustoldo damages Worg: 11 (10 Physical 1 Fire)
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Mon Feb 15 17:04:39] Expertise : Bregrorn Mustoldo attacks Worg : *hit* : (19 + 3 = 22 : Threat Roll: 6 + 3 = 9)
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Mon Feb 15 17:04:39] Bregrorn Mustoldo damages Worg: 10 (9 Physical 1 Fire)
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Mon Feb 15 17:04:39] Experience Points Gained:  7
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Mon Feb 15 17:04:39] Bregrorn Mustoldo killed Worg

Finally, the terrifying bandit mercifully had one attack with a +7 attack bonus. I should note that there were lesser versions of the bandits that I fought that had a single attack at +3 attack bonus and yielded 3 experience.

[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Mon Feb 15 17:07:41] Bandit attacks Bregrorn Mustoldo : *miss* : (4 + 7 = 11)
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Mon Feb 15 17:07:41] Expertise : Bregrorn Mustoldo attacks Bandit : *hit* : (11 + 8 = 19)
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Mon Feb 15 17:07:41] Bregrorn Mustoldo damages Bandit: 8 (7 Physical 1 Fire)
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Mon Feb 15 17:07:43] Expertise : Bregrorn Mustoldo attacks Bandit : *hit* : (12 + 3 = 15)
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Mon Feb 15 17:07:44] Bregrorn Mustoldo damages Bandit: 7 (6 Physical 1 Fire)
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Mon Feb 15 17:07:46] Bandit attacks Bregrorn Mustoldo : *miss* : (17 + 7 = 24)
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Mon Feb 15 17:07:48] Expertise : Bregrorn Mustoldo attacks Bandit : *miss* : (1 + 8 = 9)
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Mon Feb 15 17:07:50] Expertise : Bregrorn Mustoldo attacks Bandit : *hit* : (9 + 3 = 12)
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Mon Feb 15 17:07:51] Bregrorn Mustoldo damages Bandit: 10 (9 Physical 1 Fire)
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Mon Feb 15 17:07:51] Experience Points Gained:  5
[CHAT WINDOW TEXT] [Mon Feb 15 17:07:51] Bregrorn Mustoldo killed Bandit

In terms of challenge, this is more along the lines of what I was expecting. I should be able to succeed so long as I take things slow and play smart. In fact, today I got distracted and ended up dying to a bandit mage! I know, I survive the overwhelming odds against the nightmare fuel yesterday only to fall to a lame-o today. It just reinforces the fact that this time around things were appropriately challenging!

Moving forward, let us prescribe to the theory that a higher level character passed through the area to spawn more challenging enemies, is there anything that signifies their increased challenge (i.e. a visual cue such as texture or model variant, or alternate description text that describes how much more powerful their build is / more professional their equipment looks)?

[appleseedy]

probably should be in separate thread but related ish. would love it if Bosses scaled up the way critters do so we don't have bosses weaker than their homies

[nemusator]

First of all, glad you are having fun. Second, there are no guarantees. Just because you are fe lvl 5 and doing dungeon for your level, doesn't mean you won't find it overwhelming. Also 1's and 20's go so well together... There is also Durlag's tower(hope I got it right) concept of building you might stumble upon 🙂. A dungeon or an area you might find way too challenging for the area itself, with first spawns clearly showing that... Frc is hard, will often surprise and make you retreat... Sorta it's charm.
Personally I like whenever they update a place with harder version, hope it becomes a thing.

[Jhorius]

The RNG(random number generator) for this game is quite possibly the worst I have ever encountered in a video game. I understand balance and all the other reasons why this particular version of NWN is the way it is, but....... I had a level 6 or 7 monk walking out and about south of the Gaunt and encountered your everyday average run of the mill hobgoblin. I was able to beat his comrades fairly quickly, but I spent the next two minutes (almost anyways) trying to defeat that hobgoblin god.

The thing about it is, that I didn't use many potions because we both kept getting ridiculously low rolls. A small part of our death battle saw 6 one's rolled in a row with 4 of them mine! On one of my melee characters, I would run into slumps where I couldn't roll higher than a 9 for what seemed like forever, then I would get 3 crits in a row....

As far as what Ruin typed about the enemies having high chances to roll natural 20's.... Nah, that's not how it should work even when you're outnumbered like that.

Imagine fighting kobolds.... Getting pinned down.... And each one of them continously hits you over and over again while you miss nearly every attack and you die... Against kobolds.... As a level 10 fighter....

[malclave]

As far as what Ruin typed about the enemies having high chances to roll natural 20's.... Nah, that's not how it should work even when you're outnumbered like that

Actually, it is, just like a PC with 5 attacks a round has a higher chance of rolling at least one 20 than does a character with 2 attacks. The more times you roll, the better your chances of rolling a 20 (or a 1).

I don't know how "fair" the RNG is; I suppose it's comparable to everyone at one table of D&D sharing the same d20. Sometimes it feels like I'm getting all the bad rolls to offset the NPCs' good ones, but that's probably just a tendency to remember 20s more than anything else (except maybe 1s on a save-or-die roll).

[Warlord]

Neverwinter Nights is known to disfavor the player in favor of the monsters. Numbers, dice/rolls, estimates...etc...it is all rounded-up, so the RNG is very much a bummer. But regardless of that variable goof, we still encourage folks to travel in groups and this does help avoid the heartaches.

[sightblinder]

Alright, level 9 character Ahmuk on the map just east of Shally spawned two berserker hill giants *TWICE*. Confirmed as much as I could there were no higher level characters around. This was at 4:05p CST in the states. Player name is Sightblinder. Also happened with bandit spawns and worg spawns.

Edited to add- also spawned dire bears instead of brown bears in between GG and Shally, on the map with the snakes and pirates. I didn't risk spawning the snakes but I think they would have been super sized as well.

[ID10Tango]

Sounds like a dangerous area for low levels, better find yourself a group before you go back

[sightblinder]

Oh, he killed them all.

[ihmajin]

Feb 16, 2021 19:04:46 GMT -5 sightblinder said:

Oh, he killed them all.

I did what some might call, a pro gamer move.

Feb 15, 2021 17:51:11 GMT -5 ihmajin said:

Moving forward, let us prescribe to the theory that a higher level character passed through the area to spawn more challenging enemies, is there anything that signifies their increased challenge (i.e. a visual cue such as texture or model variant, or alternate description text that describes how much more powerful their build is / more professional their equipment looks)?

Does anyone have an answer to whether or not there is anything that signifies a normal bandit / worg / ogre from a higher level bandit / worg / ogre that spawned in the same area?

[Deleted]

Some human bandits in FRC are just poorly balanced and are remnants of the previous version of the Mistwood region. Back then, I remember DMs would shout warnings that the original Mistwood was imbalanced.

The sorcerers and those that tend to wield shortswords are the worst offenders.

[davenutninja408]

Feb 16, 2021 20:16:30 GMT -5 ihmajin said:

Feb 16, 2021 19:04:46 GMT -5 sightblinder said:

Oh, he killed them all.

I did what some might call, a pro gamer move.

Feb 15, 2021 17:51:11 GMT -5 ihmajin said:

Moving forward, let us prescribe to the theory that a higher level character passed through the area to spawn more challenging enemies, is there anything that signifies their increased challenge (i.e. a visual cue such as texture or model variant, or alternate description text that describes how much more powerful their build is / more professional their equipment looks)?

Does anyone have an answer to whether or not there is anything that signifies a normal bandit / worg / ogre from a higher level bandit / worg / ogre that spawned in the same area?

There is no obvious distinction on most, but in some cases The worgs are larger, the giants get an extra (berserker) tag, the bandits, ettins, and ogres though really do not have any signals.

[Scream of Silence]

Some of the ogre berserkers seem to get more armor bits on their model the higher tier they are. Despite the same name.

[Jhorius]

Feb 16, 2021 16:34:20 GMT -5 malclave said:

As far as what Ruin typed about the enemies having high chances to roll natural 20's.... Nah, that's not how it should work even when you're outnumbered like that

Actually, it is, just like a PC with 5 attacks a round has a higher chance of rolling at least one 20 than does a character with 2 attacks. The more times you roll, the better your chances of rolling a 20 (or a 1).

I don't know how "fair" the RNG is; I suppose it's comparable to everyone at one table of D&D sharing the same d20. Sometimes it feels like I'm getting all the bad rolls to offset the NPCs' good ones, but that's probably just a tendency to remember 20s more than anything else (except maybe 1s on a save-or-die roll).

I agree that natural math would increase the chances of repeating numbers when you put more dice into the calculation, but, I'm arguing that just because you're outnumbered, an enemy team shouldn't be able to roll 20's more often because the augmented math system wants them to roll 20's. I don't know the details of the programming so I can't say whether or not they are given bonuses to roll particular numbers, in this case 20's, outside of natural math when certain conditions are met.

To me, giving any preference towards a particular number, unless special circumstances are met, isn't fair regardless of the number being favored.  (I know there are all kinds of ways to do this with a DM manual, flatfooted, flanked, prone, etc....).

[Fluffy the Mad]

Feb 20, 2021 8:13:16 GMT -5 Jhorius said:

Feb 16, 2021 16:34:20 GMT -5 malclave said:

Actually, it is, just like a PC with 5 attacks a round has a higher chance of rolling at least one 20 than does a character with 2 attacks. The more times you roll, the better your chances of rolling a 20 (or a 1).

I don't know how "fair" the RNG is; I suppose it's comparable to everyone at one table of D&D sharing the same d20. Sometimes it feels like I'm getting all the bad rolls to offset the NPCs' good ones, but that's probably just a tendency to remember 20s more than anything else (except maybe 1s on a save-or-die roll).

I agree that natural math would increase the chances of repeating numbers when you put more dice into the calculation, but, I'm arguing that just because you're outnumbered, an enemy team shouldn't be able to roll 20's more often because the augmented math system wants them to roll 20's. I don't know the details of the programming so I can't say whether or not they are given bonuses to roll particular numbers, in this case 20's, outside of natural math when certain conditions are met.

To me, giving any preference towards a particular number, unless special circumstances are met, isn't fair regardless of the number being favored.  (I know there are all kinds of ways to do this with a DM manual, flatfooted, flanked, prone, etc....).

This... isn't how math works. At all. The NWN PRNG isn't perfect but it isn't that bad, either. If you have a five percent chance each roll to make a 20, you're going to see more 20s the more rolls you have. If you have two attacks a round and you're surrounded by five enemies with two attacks a round each, they'll end up, on average, rolling five times as many twenties as you do.

Just for laughs I spent a good thirty seconds writing a function to roll one hundred thousand d20s for me. It came up with 5,071 20s. 5.071% 20s, exactly on the money over the long haul as expected.

[maeglhachel]

Isn't this what statisticians call the "law of large numbers"?
Reminds me of a server I've been with places that had a gazillion critters with fear auras or death gazes (kinda like a certain mummy tomb on steroids) ... in a way that suddenly made critters that you'd laugh at in small numbers really scary, again ... in another way it was meh, because you'd just only go to those places if you had the right immunities, because otherwise you would die, period.
Or like a math teacher of mine used to say: And essential part of probability is that even the improbable things happen, at times. So, you _will_ win the lottery ... just play enough millennia

[Fluffy the Mad]

Feb 20, 2021 10:26:50 GMT -5 maeglhachel said:

Isn't this what statisticians call the "law of large numbers"?
Reminds me of a server I've been with places that had a gazillion critters with fear auras or death gazes (kinda like a certain mummy tomb on steroids) ... in a way that suddenly made critters that you'd laugh at in small numbers really scary, again ... in another way it was meh, because you'd just only go to those places if you had the right immunities, because otherwise you would die, period.
Or like a math teacher of mine used to say: And essential part of probability is that even the improbable things happen, at times. So, you _will_ win the lottery ... just play enough millennia

That's exactly what it means. A small, biased sample size means absolutely nothing for the state of the NWN PRNG. You have to look at the overall distribution of numbers; the server calls its randomizer SO much that any small trend, even if it seems improbable, will happen at some point. Ten twenties in a row isn't that probable when you're looking at a hundred rolls. When you look at two million, it suddenly seems like it might be hiding in there somewhere. The server isn't biased towards giving monsters more 20s than players, they just roll a LOT more in general.